CS2 Trade-Up Probability Calculator — Outcome Odds
Understanding probability is the difference between gambling and trading in CS2. Every trade-up outcome has a calculable probability based on the input collections. Learn how to calculate and manipulate these odds in your favor.
See Probabilities in the Scanner →How Trade-Up Probabilities Are Calculated
Each trade-up output has a specific probability determined by two factors:
- Collection weight: How many of your 10 inputs come from each collection
- Skins per collection: How many possible output skins exist in each collection at the target rarity
Formula:
P(skin) = (inputs_from_collection / 10) × (1 / skins_at_target_rarity_in_collection)
Example: 6 inputs from Collection A (which has 4 Restricted outputs) → each Collection A Restricted skin has probability: 6/10 × 1/4 = 15%
Manipulating Probabilities in Your Favor
You can weight probabilities by choosing how many inputs come from each collection:
- Load toward valuable collections: 7–8 inputs from the collection with the best outputs
- Use filler from cheap collections: 2–3 inputs from collections with cheap skins (even if their outputs are mediocre)
- Avoid dilution: Collections with many cheap outputs at the target tier dilute your probability of the valuable skins
Key insight: A collection with 2 expensive outputs at 10% each is often better than a collection with 6 outputs where only 1 is expensive at 3.3%.
Probability vs. Profitability
High probability doesn't always mean high profit. What matters is the probability-weighted expected value:
- A 5% chance of a €200 skin contributes €10 to EV
- A 50% chance of a €5 skin contributes €2.50 to EV
- The rare skin contributes MORE to profitability despite lower probability
TradeUpX calculates the full EV across all outcomes, so you don't need to do this math manually. Focus on total EV and ROI, not individual probabilities.