CS2 Trade Up Guide: Formulas, Floats & ROI Explained
CS2 trade-up contracts let you exchange 10 skins of the same rarity for 1 skin of the next higher tier. The output float is not random — it follows a deterministic formula using each input skin's normalized float. This guide covers everything you need to find profitable trade-ups: the math, the tools, and the strategy.
Open the CS2 Trade-Up Scanner →How CS2 Trade-Up Contracts Work
A trade-up contract takes exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and produces 1 random skin of the next higher rarity. The output is drawn from the collections you put in, weighted by how many skins come from each collection.
- Rarity tiers: Consumer → Industrial → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert
- Float formula: Output float = output_min + avg_adjusted_float × (output_max − output_min)
- StatTrak rule: All 10 inputs must match — all StatTrak or all normal
- Steam fee: 13% deducted when you sell the output (5% Steam + 8% CS2)
The most profitable paths are Restricted → Classified and Classified → Covert, where output skins can be worth significantly more than the combined input cost.
Expected Value (EV) and ROI
Expected Value tells you the average profit across all possible outputs:
EV = Σ(probability_i × output_price_i × 0.87) − total_input_costROI expresses EV as a percentage of input cost. Target 130%+ ROI for meaningful profit after Steam fees. TradeUpX calculates EV and ROI automatically for every contract across all collections.
The Float Formula Explained
Output float is deterministic, not random. Each input float is normalized to the skin's own min/max range, then the average is mapped to the output skin's range. This means you can engineer specific output wear by controlling input floats.
For a deep dive into float mechanics, per-skin ranges and Factory New targeting, read the CS2 Float Value Guide.
Best Trade-Up Paths by Budget
- €10–50: Mil-Spec → Restricted — low risk, good for learning
- €30–150: Restricted → Classified — best consistency, most profitable path for daily trading
- €100–500: Classified → Covert — high reward, higher variance
- €200–2,000+: Covert → Gold (Knife/Glove) — highest stakes, requires bankroll
Check today's best trade-ups for current market opportunities.
How to Use TradeUpX
- Open the Trade-Up Scanner
- Select your rarity tier and budget
- Click Start Scan — results ranked by ROI
- Review output probabilities, float predictions and EV
- Buy inputs on Steam Market and execute the contract
Use the trade-up tools for float calculations, Steam fee estimates and ROI checks.