CS2 Trade-Up Simulator
A trade-up simulator lets you preview the full outcome of a contract before committing real skins — every possible output, its exact drop probability, the float it will land at, and the expected value after Steam fees. TradeUpX simulates all 10-input contracts across every collection so you can test ideas risk-free.
Open the Trade-Up Simulator →What a CS2 Trade-Up Simulator Actually Does
Simulating a trade-up means computing the contract's outcome distribution without buying anything. For any set of 10 inputs, TradeUpX calculates:
- Every possible output — pulled from the collections of your inputs
- The drop chance of each output — based on how many outputs each input collection contributes
- The output float — from the normalized average of your 10 input floats
- The expected value (EV) — probability-weighted output value minus the 13% Steam fee
The result is a clear picture of risk and reward before you spend money — exactly what a simulator is for.
How to Simulate a Trade-Up Step by Step
- Open the TradeUpX scanner
- Pick a rarity path (e.g. Restricted → Classified)
- Run a scan — every viable contract is simulated automatically
- Expand any result to see the full output table, drop odds and float math
- Adjust Mixed Float to simulate different wear targets and watch the EV update
Because the simulation uses live prices, the EV you see reflects what the contract is actually worth right now.
Why Simulate Before You Trade Up
Trade-ups are irreversible — once you confirm a contract, your 10 inputs are gone. Simulating first protects you from the two most common mistakes:
- Negative-EV contracts that look profitable until you account for Steam fees and output float
- Unreachable float targets where the Factory New output you were hoping for is mathematically impossible from your inputs
A 30-second simulation routinely saves traders €50–200 per avoided bad contract.