CS2 Trade-Up Odds & Probability
Trade-up odds decide whether a contract is worth running. The chance of each output isn't random luck — it follows a precise rule based on how many outputs each input collection contributes. Understanding that rule is the difference between gambling and calculated trading.
Calculate Your Trade-Up Odds →How CS2 Trade-Up Odds Are Calculated
Each of your 10 inputs contributes one "ticket" toward the output pool of its own collection. The probability of a specific output skin is:
P(output) = (number of inputs from that collection) ÷ (total outputs in that collection) ÷ 10 × (inputs from collection)
In plain terms: an input from a collection with fewer next-rarity skins gives each of those skins a higher individual drop chance. This is why collection balance is the single most important lever in trade-up odds.
Stacking the Odds in Your Favour
- Favour lean collections: If a collection has only 1–2 skins at the output rarity, each input from it pushes the odds toward those specific (hopefully expensive) skins.
- Avoid diluted pools: Collections with 5+ output skins spread your odds thin, lowering the chance of hitting the valuable one.
- Weight by value, not just chance: A 20% shot at a €120 skin beats a 60% shot at a €15 skin. TradeUpX multiplies odds × value to give you the real expected value.
Reading Odds in the TradeUpX Scanner
Every simulated contract shows a probability bar next to each possible output. Green-highlighted rows are the profitable hits. The headline ROI already folds the odds into a single number, so you can compare contracts at a glance and drill into the per-output probabilities when you want the detail.
Run a scan on the scanner and expand any row to see the full odds breakdown.